02 February 2010

The Curious Case of Jaroslav Halak



Due to the ascension of the aforementioned Halak and the birthright as the second coming of Patrick Roy (Carey Price), the Canadiens have the advantageous position of having a surplus of quality young goaltending and the burden of having both insist upon starting.  Similar to the recently resolved situation in Anaheim, the Habs have an incumbent that seems to have fallen out of favor with the coaching staff which complicates the matter further.

Carey Price, the 5th overall pick in the 2005 draft, has had his ups and downs during his short NHL tenure but his outlook at this point is still very positive.  The organization seems to still thinks that he is their goaltender of the future, not to mention he is still only 22 years old so trading him is not something the team should be overly interested in pursuing.  The problem, however is that Price has not had a great year.  He is 11-14-4 with a 2.73 GAA and a .913 (which isn't horrible).  Combine these relatively mediocre numbers with a collapse his previous playoff series and you have a situation that is going to give the proud Canadiens pause about his ability to deliver another Cup to Montreal.

Then you have Jaroslav Halak.  He has had a considerably better season thus far than Price (14-8-2, 2.45 GAA, .927 save pct.) and has been getting the bulk of the playing time as of late.  He is the subject on constant trade rumors and has countless potential suitors.  The biggest question I have is what is an adequate return for a goaltender of his talents, and does it make sense for Montreal to trade him at all?  

First, if you compare the pedigree of the two you have two polar opposites.  Price was a top 5 draft pick, Halak was drafted in the 9th round (271st overall).  Price has gotten every chance to make it since he was called up.  Halak has had to dig, claw and fight his way into the show.  Few saw any upside in Halak when he was drafted, but now many are questioning whether or not he will ultimately be the more effective NHL goalie long term.  Despite many experts drawing the conclusion that Price would land a much bigger return, it seems at first reaction that the Habs seem more inclined to deal Halak.  The Habs seem to give the impression, though subtly their rationale for keeping Price is more due to fear that he could fulfill the potential that they gave up on elsewhere.  The issue of return on asset is another matter entirely given the upside of Price.  The (no-pun intended) price would certainly be higher for offering clubs, but do the Habs want to place their long term faith in Halak?  As I see Halak, he is a solid, relatively consistent goalie that can show occasional flashes of brilliance.  He could win a Cup on a great team (see Red Wings, 1997-1999), but he doesn't seem like the broad shouldered type.  On the other hand, he could also be a flash in the pan, Jim Carrey/Andrew Raycroft/Tim Thomas (just you wait) type.  So how do you determine a good return for a somewhat enigmatic young keeper?  

I've read guesstimates on a return ranging from Jeff Carter to a 3rd round draft pick.  Just a couple of seasons ago, Gainey traded Cristobal Huet to Washington for a 2nd round pick.  Huet was a relatively established NHL goalie who had an All-Stat appearance and a never a season with under a .900 save percentage.  Granted, he is considerably older than either of the goalies in question (32 at the time vs. 22/24), but your trading off with inexperience and uncertainty.  Would you think Halak should fetch more or less than Huet?  Obviously if Philly decided to throw Jeff Carter at Gainey for Halak, you pull the trigger on that before he decides to change his mind.  But would a mid-round draft pick be worth giving up a living, breathing useful NHL goalie?  If he still thinks the Habs have a shot at a playoff spot, Gainey should go for a top-6 forward to help their anemic offense, but with the Cammalleri injury today you never know where that may stand.  The Canadiens could always say "We sign your paychecks, you'll play when we say you'll play" and use both of their young tenders to their advantage, or it may end up creating a hostile work environment that could ultimately hurt the chemistry in the locker room.  Unless there is a clear cut winner and loser in the almost inevitable trade the compensation will probably remain murky until we see the ultimate ceiling of number 41.



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